The PNG Futurist - shaping the next 50 years

K6 billion in trust funds have been reduced to K600 million kina. Billions have gone out the door without anyone knowing who has taken it, where it has gone? We have just passed K6 billion budget for 2011 which is a record for PNG’s history. Meanwhile development in POM is booming and consumption of luxuries has increased which is reflected in the SP Brewery expansion project showing the demand for alcohol etc. Luxury cars with a lot of property being purchased in Australia. Meanwhile, outside of Port Moresby, women are dying in childbirth. People are dying from preventable diseases. Schools with no school books or buildings. Impassable roads. No electricity. No government presence. Development funds used to fund personal bank accounts for politicians and their cronies. Given the fragmentation of society driven by the geographical features of PNG, it can result in many individual developments where people in an area will get together and contribute and build an aid post. Then they will...

Given the population size in Papua New Guinea and the assumption that the standard deviation applies across large populations, you would think that there will be a majority of normal people with a small percentage of mentally retarded people and also a small percentage of genius within the 6 million people of PNG. All great nations have fostered their genius’s who have developed innovative solutions and have provided the impetus for national growth. The challenge for us especially the education system is to identify these individuals wherever they may be and to develop them quickly through the system so that they are able to contribute fully to national development. Think about Genghis Khan, who was known to have massacred everyone he conquered, always saved the best and brightest from all the nations he conquered because he knew that they would contribute more to his kingdom. Think of Los Alamos and the American effort to develop the Atom Bomb. Think about the American drive to put a ...

The current education system cannot cater for the growing population. The quality of education is not preparing PNG to be able to compete in the future world where the world will be more connected with money, materials and people being able to move around more easily, PNG workers will always be at a disadvantage. Over 90% of the population attend the public school system where even the brightest students are “dumbed down” by the experience. The privileged few who can send their children to private schools or even better to overseas schools will find that their children will have the pick of the jobs and will be in positions to perpetuate the power that their parents have started to build. The vast majority will end up as security guards and shop keepers whilst this country’s resources are controlled by the few elites.

Ever since ancient times, roads were the core infrastructure around which civilizations grew and flourished. Towns emerged from cross roads where travelers rested on their way to their destinations. Initially to support the travelers – replenish supplies and care of their pack animals. Good roads enabled the army to mobilize and move quickly to counter a threat in any part of the kingdom. Roads allowed goods and services to flow efficiently and allowed the government to monitor and collect revenue from the business transacted through the roads. It allowed the diffusion of new technology or customs to spread throughout the civilization freely and quickly. Upon roads were civilizations built. The dilemma for PNG is how to bring development to our people. We have a whole host of things that we feel will improve the living standards for our general populations. We have global organizations – UN programs - WHO, World Bank etc all espousing certain indicators which they see from their histor...

THE GOVERNEMENT CASH COW The Papua New Guinea government is viewed as a cash cow for ambitious and corrupt groups of individuals both within and outside of the government bodies. Due to the lack of controls and punishments for corruption, this siphoning of public monies is more pervasive and will continue on for some time. Parliament cannot mange this because the key players are complicit in the rorts. Implication Most of the development funds etc will not get to the projects for which they are intended for. The national development indicators will not increase. If this continues for 10-20 years, there will be a strong resentment towards the government felt by the rural people. It is possible that their may be revolts and calls for autonomy. CLOSE TIES BETWEEN BUSINESS & POLITICS. The close ties between business and the kickbacks to politics will affect the free market performance and PNG will loose out on the efficiencies that come from a robust free market – where there is an eve...

The future of the country looks bright with the LNG project coming on line, however if one looks closely at the horizon, there are dark clouds of crisis forming that the people of PNG need to be wary of (1) Upcoming elections (2) LNG (3) State Security Services (1) Upcoming Elections The recent Kandep elections is an indication of what will happen when you have determined candidates combined with large sums of money, high powered weapons & supporters determined to do whatever it takes to win the election. The resources of the State were stretched however it was able to manage because there were no other security issues happening concurrently. Now imagine if there were a minimum of 2 or 3 “Kandep” type elections at the same time in 2012. (2) LNG The money flowing into the Hela region as well as into the pockets of a few elite people in Government is huge. Some have been spent on purchasing of weapons. Combine this with frustrations regarding the perceived overbearing behavior of the...

The essence of this blog and it's contents are captured in the image above. I will endeavour to explain the past; highlighting the key factors and their impact on our development as a nation. I will then investigate the key trend in the current phase in PNG's development and the current national goals. Then I will look at the alternate development paths in order to achieve our national goals. Bear in mind that this is a journal, so there is no end. The discussion will continue with revisions once new information is uncovered or assumptions are challenged and changed. Thus it is in the best interest of the reader to assist with the most up to date information or the best assumptions for the discussion to bear fruit.