The PNG Futurist - shaping the next 50 years

THE COMING APOCALYPSE The world has witnessed the largest creation of wealth ever in history since the industrial revolution. Especially in modern times, we have witnessed huge wealth being created by such great organisations as ExxonMobil, General Motors. There were only a handful of billionaires in the early 20 th century, now there are approximately 1,210 billionaires in the world. As an indication, the world’s largest asset manager is BlackRock Inc. with $3.65 trillion in assets under management. This huge growth has been funded by debt. Governments borrow to build infrastructure and fund social programs with the intent to pay back the borrowings from the future tax revenue streams. Consumers borrow to pay for homes (mortgage), house hold items (retail credit) and miscellaneous luxuries (credit card). This then feeds a vicious cycle whereby the investments from the borrowed funds creates more demand and although in the short term, this will be see as robust economic gro...

We read in the newspapers of large funds being paid out by the government to individuals for contracts etc. We hear of public funds being diverted into personal accounts and misused. We see overnight millionaires. We see the games being played by both sides of parliament; we see the lack of development in the provinces. Yet the people of PNG just sit and watch. We elect MP’s during election time and then spend 4 years complaining that we are not getting services. Then we elect the same type of MP again and spend the next 4 years complaining. We, the people, deserve better. “NO CARE” mentality Why doesn’t anyone care? The root cause for the "I don't care" mentality is the issue of PERSONAL RELEVANCE. Someone steals K10million from Government funds, how does it apply to me individually? I don't really know. That is why I am not out there protesting. If it was my savings in the bank that was misused by a bank manager - you bet, I would be out there protesting. My MP bypa...

Imagine a manager applying for a CEO role in a large, successful organization, he/she would not be given the position because of how well he can speak and whether he threw a feast for all the shareholders and gave them K100 each. He would go through a formal recruitment process 1. His CV would be made known What is his background? Is he an achiever, leader – this can be seen from the results of his involvement. E.g. did he build a business, did he manage a large organization. 2. He would go through an interview covering some of the following points What is your experience and qualifications? [The interviewer wants to know about his experience and details about his CV] What were the challenges you faced and how did you overcome them? [The interviewer wants to know if he has experienced hardships and what decisions he made. A man who is experienced in life can be trusted to make good decisions especially decisions involving lots of money or implications on people] What experience do you ...

CURRENT 2011 POLITICS - stable party system is now fragmenting. - National leadership vacuum – no clear successor to the Chief Somare ECONOMICS - LNG & high commodity prices fuelling economic growth. - Higher Government revenues has ▲ allowing more spend into rural areas? - dispersion of wealth not equitable SOCIAL - ▲ in population putting a strain on current infrastructure that was geared for 1980’s population levels. - youthful population demographic - Development is evidenced in rural areas only – specifically POM. - still no clear national identity. TECHNOLOGY - Mobile technology ▲ impact throughout population. - High speed internet access allowing better access to information around the globe. - Beginning of mobile commerce ENVIRONMENT - Rising sea levels & changing weather patterns impacting on food crop yields. LEGISLATION - very short sighted legislation more focused on creating channels for funds to be approved and spent then on creating the machinery that will truly ...

Corruption follows a formula: C = M + D – A. C)Corruption equals (M) monopoly plus (D)discretion minus (A)accountability. Corruption flourishes when someone has monopoly power over a good or service, has the discretion to decide how much you get or whether you get it at all, and has no accountability. - Robert Klitgaard, “Addressing Corruption in Haiti.” This is exactly what is happening in the corridors of power especially in Government departments especially respect to projects fund – Land Owner MOA’s, Development projects etc. Just like any mathematical equation, to do the opposite to reduce corruption. Increase accountability – improve bite for Ombudsman Commission and penalise wrongdoers, reduce monopoly – meaning decentralising powers so that one office is not looking after everything. Some functions can be transferred to the provinces; Discretion must be removed by setting up clear policies, processes and guidelines to be followed.

K6 billion in trust funds have been reduced to K600 million kina. Billions have gone out the door without anyone knowing who has taken it, where it has gone? We have just passed K6 billion budget for 2011 which is a record for PNG’s history. Meanwhile development in POM is booming and consumption of luxuries has increased which is reflected in the SP Brewery expansion project showing the demand for alcohol etc. Luxury cars with a lot of property being purchased in Australia. Meanwhile, outside of Port Moresby, women are dying in childbirth. People are dying from preventable diseases. Schools with no school books or buildings. Impassable roads. No electricity. No government presence. Development funds used to fund personal bank accounts for politicians and their cronies. Given the fragmentation of society driven by the geographical features of PNG, it can result in many individual developments where people in an area will get together and contribute and build an aid post. Then they will...

The current education system cannot cater for the growing population. The quality of education is not preparing PNG to be able to compete in the future world where the world will be more connected with money, materials and people being able to move around more easily, PNG workers will always be at a disadvantage. Over 90% of the population attend the public school system where even the brightest students are “dumbed down” by the experience. The privileged few who can send their children to private schools or even better to overseas schools will find that their children will have the pick of the jobs and will be in positions to perpetuate the power that their parents have started to build. The vast majority will end up as security guards and shop keepers whilst this country’s resources are controlled by the few elites.

THE GOVERNEMENT CASH COW The Papua New Guinea government is viewed as a cash cow for ambitious and corrupt groups of individuals both within and outside of the government bodies. Due to the lack of controls and punishments for corruption, this siphoning of public monies is more pervasive and will continue on for some time. Parliament cannot mange this because the key players are complicit in the rorts. Implication Most of the development funds etc will not get to the projects for which they are intended for. The national development indicators will not increase. If this continues for 10-20 years, there will be a strong resentment towards the government felt by the rural people. It is possible that their may be revolts and calls for autonomy. CLOSE TIES BETWEEN BUSINESS & POLITICS. The close ties between business and the kickbacks to politics will affect the free market performance and PNG will loose out on the efficiencies that come from a robust free market – where there is an eve...

The essence of this blog and it's contents are captured in the image above. I will endeavour to explain the past; highlighting the key factors and their impact on our development as a nation. I will then investigate the key trend in the current phase in PNG's development and the current national goals. Then I will look at the alternate development paths in order to achieve our national goals. Bear in mind that this is a journal, so there is no end. The discussion will continue with revisions once new information is uncovered or assumptions are challenged and changed. Thus it is in the best interest of the reader to assist with the most up to date information or the best assumptions for the discussion to bear fruit.