2012 – POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE OF CRISES.
The future of the country looks bright with the LNG project coming on line, however if one looks closely at the horizon, there are dark clouds of crisis forming that the people of PNG need to be wary of (1) Upcoming elections (2) LNG (3) State Security Services
(1) Upcoming Elections
The recent Kandep elections is an indication of what will happen when you have determined candidates combined with large sums of money, high powered weapons & supporters determined to do whatever it takes to win the election. The resources of the State were stretched however it was able to manage because there were no other security issues happening concurrently. Now imagine if there were a minimum of 2 or 3 “Kandep” type elections at the same time in 2012.
(2) LNG
The money flowing into the Hela region as well as into the pockets of a few elite people in Government is huge. Some have been spent on purchasing of weapons. Combine this with frustrations regarding the perceived overbearing behavior of the government & developers regarding landowner issues and a naturally aggressive culture & you have a highly lethal situation that can escalate into a national crisis quickly. The LNG concept, from a political and landowner standpoint, is no different to Kutubu pipeline currently piping oil. Why all the fuss? The reason is that, people have learnt since the previous projects how money can be siphoned off. There are hungry bureaucrats & greedy individuals who also want a piece of the LNG pie? They are complicating the issues and adding fuel to the fire. Does the state have the relevant structure & strategy to manage this project?
Given the level of involvement from politics & it’s impacts on government funding, the prime motivation for current & aspiring MP’s in the Hela/Western and Papua regions will the control over LNG project. As in any competition, there will be winners and losers. However, in this competition, what the losers can do out of frustration can seriously cripple the Nation.
(3) State Security Services.
Although the issue in PNG has always been the law & order situation, this is not reflected in the funding & support for the State Security Services – Police Force, Defense Force, and Correctional Services.
The equipment & infrastructure is falling apart, solutions have been adhoc. High caliber leadership within the services seems to be an exception rather than the rule. A few individuals stand out but it is only by individual merit.
As a group their loyalty to the State is unquestionable however as individuals, that loyalty can be challenged. Would individuals put the State’s interest before their tribe, political affiliation, regional interest? Would that individual arrest or fire upon his own tribesmen if they are deemed to be a clear and present danger to the State & its citizens?
Do we have the right structure, manning levels, skills, mindset & leadership within our State Security Services to handle the future threat scenarios?
Convergence of Crises
If the three points above are not taken into account now and preparations not made, there is a high potential that there will be a National crises in 2012.
The outcome of this may be a political, economic and social reality which may be totally different to what we envision now.
We as a nation need to be proactive about what path our future will take rather than be reactive to whims of fate & the greed of men.
(1) Upcoming Elections
The recent Kandep elections is an indication of what will happen when you have determined candidates combined with large sums of money, high powered weapons & supporters determined to do whatever it takes to win the election. The resources of the State were stretched however it was able to manage because there were no other security issues happening concurrently. Now imagine if there were a minimum of 2 or 3 “Kandep” type elections at the same time in 2012.
(2) LNG
The money flowing into the Hela region as well as into the pockets of a few elite people in Government is huge. Some have been spent on purchasing of weapons. Combine this with frustrations regarding the perceived overbearing behavior of the government & developers regarding landowner issues and a naturally aggressive culture & you have a highly lethal situation that can escalate into a national crisis quickly. The LNG concept, from a political and landowner standpoint, is no different to Kutubu pipeline currently piping oil. Why all the fuss? The reason is that, people have learnt since the previous projects how money can be siphoned off. There are hungry bureaucrats & greedy individuals who also want a piece of the LNG pie? They are complicating the issues and adding fuel to the fire. Does the state have the relevant structure & strategy to manage this project?
Given the level of involvement from politics & it’s impacts on government funding, the prime motivation for current & aspiring MP’s in the Hela/Western and Papua regions will the control over LNG project. As in any competition, there will be winners and losers. However, in this competition, what the losers can do out of frustration can seriously cripple the Nation.
(3) State Security Services.
Although the issue in PNG has always been the law & order situation, this is not reflected in the funding & support for the State Security Services – Police Force, Defense Force, and Correctional Services.
The equipment & infrastructure is falling apart, solutions have been adhoc. High caliber leadership within the services seems to be an exception rather than the rule. A few individuals stand out but it is only by individual merit.
As a group their loyalty to the State is unquestionable however as individuals, that loyalty can be challenged. Would individuals put the State’s interest before their tribe, political affiliation, regional interest? Would that individual arrest or fire upon his own tribesmen if they are deemed to be a clear and present danger to the State & its citizens?
Do we have the right structure, manning levels, skills, mindset & leadership within our State Security Services to handle the future threat scenarios?
Convergence of Crises
If the three points above are not taken into account now and preparations not made, there is a high potential that there will be a National crises in 2012.
The outcome of this may be a political, economic and social reality which may be totally different to what we envision now.
We as a nation need to be proactive about what path our future will take rather than be reactive to whims of fate & the greed of men.
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