PNG - THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS

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CURRENT 2011

POLITICS
- stable party system is now fragmenting.
- National leadership vacuum – no clear successor to the Chief Somare

ECONOMICS
- LNG & high commodity prices fuelling economic growth.
- Higher Government revenues has ▲ allowing more spend into rural areas?
- dispersion of wealth not equitable

SOCIAL
- ▲ in population putting a strain on current infrastructure that was geared for 1980’s population levels.
- youthful population demographic
- Development is evidenced in rural areas only – specifically POM.
- still no clear national identity.

TECHNOLOGY
- Mobile technology ▲ impact throughout population.
- High speed internet access allowing better access to information around the globe.
- Beginning of mobile commerce

ENVIRONMENT
- Rising sea levels & changing weather patterns impacting on food crop yields.

LEGISLATION
- very short sighted legislation more focused on creating channels for funds to be approved and spent then on creating the machinery that will truly develop this nation.
- disjoint between legislation & implementation


SHORT TERM (2011- 2017)

POLITICS
-Return of 80’s style politics. Multiple votes of no confidence.
- given political flux & higher government revenues, public service machinery will become neglected, corruption will increase.

ECONOMICS
- LNG spend to continue but at a declining rate since most of the build up phase will be completed.
- Commodity prices will decline
- no improvement in wealth distribution.

SOCIAL
- Population▲ to continue at 2% per annum.
- Population▲ in urban areas to continue.
- Social corruption will become endemic as people compete for limited social services.
- disenchantment with LNG project can spark secession calls for resource rich areas.
- large gap between rural & urban lifestyles.

TECHNOLOGY
- Mobile Banking & Mobile money to grow in size.
- Commercial opportunities can move out of urban areas given easy access.
- Internet rates to come down increasing level of users

ENVIRONMENT
- Severe dry spells combined with heavier than usual rainfalls will impact
*food crop production – driving up inflation
*roads & infrastructure- washing away roads & bridges.
-given the excitement of LNG, other timber landowners will be looking to convert their assets into wealth meaning that large scale logging will continue or increase.

LEGISLATION
- Legislation will become more confused given the instability of the government, thus negating effectiveness of public service machinery


MEDIUM TERM (2018-2028)
POLITICS
- Social dissatisfaction will come to the fore & will impact politics.
- National leader will arise from working class – labour leader.

ECONOMICS
- GDP will be propped up by LNG export revenues however per capital GDP will decline significantly due to ▲ population, high unemployment.

SOCIAL
- Land issues will come to the fore

TECHNOLOGY
- Increased access to internet & social groups can trigger social movements that will be nationwide.
- Cheaper technology will allow PNG businesses to compete on pricing with overseas companies creating a group of PNG entrepreneurs who will build wealth from ideas only.

ENVIRONMENT
- Food security will become a National Security issue.
- People will compete over prime agricultural land. Losers will migrate to the urban areas adding to the population burden.

LEGISLATION
???

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